云南省人民政府外事办公室

云南省人民政府外事办公室

云南省人民政府港澳事务办公室

云南省人民对外友好协会

2018-08-09 14:56:00

资料来源:Asia Times

   美国名的东亚学者欧文·拉铁摩尔第二次世界大战期间( 1943)发表的一篇文章写道:云南将会是战后东南亚事态发展的枢纽”。

    拉铁摩尔认为,由于工业生产从沿海城镇迁移到内陆,“作为与缅甸和印度接壤的中国省,云南正在成为中国新的热门省份。中缅公路的建设“不仅仅是从国外开辟了一条进入中国的道路而且彻底改变了云南的生产和分配结构,因为大量人口从中国东部向人口稀少的西南地区转移。  

  拉铁摩尔着重强调了云南及其省会昆明对战时战后中国的重要性。 然而,由于所处的时代是帝国主义和殖民主义时代,拉铁摩尔认为,需要一种源推力将事态向“以云南为核心的方向”推进。在他看来,这种推不是来自中国人本身,而是来自“我们——上百年来一直习惯于把自己看作是大国的国家 

  拉铁摩尔发表文75年后的今天,云南再次成为中国通往东南亚的门户。今天的世界拉铁摩尔所处时代截然不同东南亚各国早已不再受殖民统治,其社会正在民主化,经济正蓬勃发展。中国本身就是一强大的力量,中国与东南亚邻国之间日益扩大的合作正是助推云南变成东南亚的中心枢纽的“源推力”。

  拉铁摩尔曾一度揣测战后亚洲的可能结构 如今,我们见证了中国及东南亚地区通过贸易投资和“一带一路”倡议带来的推动力形成的新兴经济结构,云南省在这结构中占有重要地位。

  当游客抵达昆明长水机场时,常常会因为自己所处的地方与东南亚国家极大的相似性感到惊讶,特别是在气候和植物群方面云南确实东南亚具有很多相似之处。云南与三个东盟成员国,即缅甸,老挝和越南接壤,陆地边界线总长达4,000公里。地理位置无疑是云南一个优势,中国政府正利用这一优势,通过加云南与周边国家的互联互通,将云南省变成通往更大经济腹地的门户。

  互联互通的第一方面就是经济一体化举措,这些举措不仅将云南与东南亚国家相连,同时也和南亚国家联系在一起。长江经济带,BCIM(孟加拉中国印度缅甸)经济走廊,中国印度半岛走廊—湄合作等各合作机制的交叠让云南在“一带一路”倡议中占特殊地位。换句话说,中国在“一带一路”倡议框架内扩大与南亚国家和湄公河下游国家的合作,而云南正好可以作为这些新兴区域合作的枢纽。

  第二方面的互联互通实际上是激活第一方面所需要具备的条件交通运输的基础设施连通。昆明至上海和广西两个方向高铁已201612月开始运营。从昆明出发成都前往东欧波兰罗兹镇的货运列车已开通。但真正的游戏规则改变者将是泛亚铁路网,它将通过三条不同路线连接中国和新加坡,第一条是通过越南和柬埔寨,现在已完成;第二条是通过老挝,工程正在进行中;第三条是通过缅甸,最近已开始动工。中国希望在2020年底之前完成泛亚铁路网建设一旦完成,铁路系统将把“一带一路”的陆上丝绸之路21世纪海上丝绸之路连接起来。

  第三方面的互联互通是通过云南与南亚东南亚国家间的贸易对接建立起来的。 一年一度的中国南亚博览会前不久在昆明举行,今年的南博会汇集了来自87个国家和地区的3800多家企业,东南亚各国都有自己的展馆。

  东南亚国家做生意的华侨企业家积极建立所在国家与国内户籍地间的商业联系。很显然,云南在这方面所占比重最大,因为云南是东南亚华侨来源最多五个省份之一。换而言之这是乡愁在支持着商业联系

  云南与东南亚国家日趋增长的交流联系为整个“一带一路”的宏图带来新的视角或许会是一个真正的成功故事,因为这将为中国和东南亚国家带来互惠互利同时也面临着一些问题。

  例如,由于南海争端仍然是中国与东南亚一些国家之间紧张关系根源,因此政治冲突是否会损害经济合作或破坏整个经济一体化 者,我们能否期望事情朝着相反的方向发展?也就是说,增加该地区的经济合作和互利互惠是否使各国有更大的动力以更和平的方式解决其政治分歧?对此,我们应该持乐观态度

  今天,云南正逐渐成为中国通过“一带一路”倡议形成的新一轮开放的前沿云南再次成为中国的“东南亚枢纽”,然而,这次是通过中国自己的内生动力,以经济贸易为目的,与75年前拉铁摩尔所说的截然不同。

   注:欧文·拉铁摩尔Owen Lattimore,1900—1989)美国著名汉学家、蒙古学家,曾任美国约翰·霍普金斯大学教授、英国利兹大学教授。其幼年、青年时居中国,曾到中国北方、蒙古、中亚地区考察,对这些地区的历史、社会有独到研究。著有《中国亚洲的内陆边疆》、《亚洲问题的解决》、《美国与亚洲》等多部著作。

 

  

Yunnan once again pivot of Southeast Asia

Asia Times    Dr. Altay·Atli

    

In an essay published in 1943 as World War II was raging on, Owen Lattimore, a renowned American scholar of East Asia, wrote: “Yunnan is the pivot on which events in Southeast Asia are likely to turn after the war.”

Lattimore believed that Yunnan “as the province of China bordering on Burma and Indochina” was becoming the new center of attraction in China thanks to the relocation of industrial production moving inland away from coastal towns, the construction of the Burma Road, which “did far more than open a way into China from abroad” and “completely changed the structure of production and distribution within Yunnan,” and the “shifting of surplus population from eastern China to the underpopulated southwest.”

Lattimore made a strong point about the rising importance of Yunnan and its provincial capital Kunming for wartime China and its postwar prospects. However, his time was still the era of empire and colonialism. Lattimore believed that a “first push” was needed “to set events to turning about the pivot of Yunnan,” and this push, according to him, was not to come from the Chinese themselves, but from “us, the countries which for a hundred years have been accustomed to thinking of ourselves as the Great Powers.”

Today, exactly 75 years after Lattimore published his essay, Yunnan is back in the spotlight as China’s gateway to Southeast Asia. This is a world starkly different from Lattimore’s time. Southeast Asia is no more under colonial rule; it is home to growing democracies and flourishing economies. China itself is a great power, and that “push” needed to turn Yunnan into a pivot of Southeast Asia is coming today from the expanding cooperation between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors.

Lattimore was speculating about the possible structure of postwar Asia; what we are witnessing today is a new economic structure in this part of the world, energized through trade, investment and the impetus brought by the Belt and Road Initiative. The province of Yunnan has a key position in this emerging structure.

Visitors landing in Kunming’s Changshui Airport are often surprised by the resemblance of the place they have arrived in to Southeast Asian locations, particularly in terms of climate and flora. Yunnan is indeed very close to Southeast Asia, and it has land borders totaling 4,000 kilometers in length with three ASEAN member countries, namely Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam.

While geographical proximity is certainly an advantage, the Chinese government is actively capitalizing on it by increasing connectivities between Yunnan and neighboring countries, in order to turn its southern province into a gateway to a larger economic hinterland.

The first kind of connectivity in this respect relates to economic integration initiatives that bring Yunnan province together with countries in not only Southeast Asia but also South Asia. Yunnan has a special place in the Belt and Road Initiative, which is emphasized through its part in integration projects such as the Yangtze River Economic Belt, BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) Economic Corridor, China-Indochina Peninsula Corridor and the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Framework.

In other words, China is expanding cooperation toward both South Asia and the lower Mekong countries within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, and Yunnan is perfectly placed to serve as a hub for this emerging network.

The second kind of connectivity, which in fact is required to vitalize the first one, is related to improvement of transport infrastructure. High-speed rail lines between Kunming and Shanghai, as well as Yunnan and Guangxi, commenced operation in December 2016. Cargo trains departing from Kunming and passing from Chengdu are making the trip all the way to Eastern Europe and terminating in the Polish town of Lodz.

But the real game changer will be the Pan-Asia Railway Network, which would connect China with Singapore through different routes, one passing through Vietnam and Cambodia, another through Laos and the third one through Myanmar. The Vietnam-Cambodia segment is already completed, work is in progress on the Laos segment, and ground has recently been broken in Myanmar. Once completed, which the Chinese hope to accomplish by the end of 2020, this rail system will also connect the overland routes of the Belt and Road Initiatives with the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.

Another kind of connectivity between Yunnan and Southeast Asia is established through business-to-business connections. The annual China-South Asia Expo takes place in Kunming, and this year’s event brought together more than 3,800 companies from 87 countries and regions, while Southeast Asian countries had their own special pavilion.

Overseas Chinese entrepreneurs in Southeast Asian countries are especially active in establishing business links between their countries of citizenship and residence and the province of Yunnan. This is only natural, as Yunnan is one of the five provinces in China that overseas Chinese living in Southeast Asia originate from. In other words, it is a case of ancestral links supporting business links.

Yunnan’s increasing engagement with Southeast Asia has the potential to bring a new dimension, perhaps a real success story to the entire Belt and Road narrative, and generate mutual benefits for China and Southeast Asian countries. There are, however, questions that will have to be answered in the future.

For instance, as territorial disputes in the South China Sea continue to be a source of tension between China and the Southeast Asian countries, is it possible that political conflict could derail economic initiatives and undermine the whole project? Or perhaps, can we expect the dynamics to work in the opposite direction? Is it possible that increasing economic cooperation and mutual benefits in the region could lead to greater motivation for countries to solve their political differences in a more peaceful way? There is no reason not to be optimistic here.

Yunnan is turning into a frontier in China’s new round of opening up, which is taking shape through the Belt and Road Initiative. It is once again becoming China’s “pivot of Southeast Asia,” this time, however, through home-grown, economy-oriented and profoundly different dynamics compared with 75 years ago.